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Weaponisation of Water From Africa to Asia
Once considered an essential part of life and treated as a natural resource, managed by engineers and diplomats working in the shadows, water has become a strategic weapon that nations can leverage in their pursuit of regional dominance. This is not happening in a secluded part of the world. On the contrary, it’s happening in every part of the planet. Across multiple regions, from the Sahel in Africa to South Asia’s Indus Basin, water insecurity is intensifying existing fault lines in ways never seen before.
Sahel: The Quantification of Scarcity and Instability
African populations have always been subjected to violence or harsh treatment for water and food. The Sahel region is not new to this either. The region has experienced severe water scarcity for decades now, attributed to the shrinking of Lake Chad, one of the largest sources of water for many African states, including Niger, Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon.
According to data from the United Nations Environment, the lake has shrunk by up to 95% between the 1960s and 1990s. The scarcity was so severe that the UN estimated that 20 to 30 million people were affected. What came next was perhaps the first incident, or among the first ones, of what we are calling the weaponisation of water.
Militia and military groups in the region quickly took notice of the situation and tried everything in their power to make it worse. They started controlling the already scarce water for their own benefits, including getting more people into their fold. By 2010, the problem had become so severe that the region saw its biggest famine to date. By September 2010, NGOs and other aid agencies reported that over 7 million people were facing the threat of starvation.
While extremism in the Sahel (including groups like Boko Haram) is driven by complex factors, water insecurity contributes to a fragile ecosystem by eroding states’ capacity to provide basic services and intensifying local competition for dwindling resources. Moreover, this leaves the population with limited options, the most preferable of which is joining a militia or a violent group.
Not only militia groups, but governments in the region also exploit this scarcity for their political gains or to torture a neighbouring country.
The South Asian Episode: Real Conflict Along the Indus Basin
South Asia, or the Indian subcontinent, to be precise, is home to the most irrigated land on the planet, thanks to the rivers that sustain the region. Unlike Africa, where water scarcity was worsened by political or guerrilla gains, Asia presents a different aspect of the same concept.
South Asia exemplifies how interstate water policies can escalate into tension between nuclear-armed nations. Indus Water Treaty (IWT), brokered in the 1960s by the World Bank between India and Pakistan, long held up as a rare, enduring agreement between two archenemies. As per the treaty, Indian will allow water from western rivers, such as the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum, into Pakistan, which supports over 80% of the country’s irrigation and hydropower capacity.
However, continuous security threats from Pakistan, like their terror attacks in Pulwam, urged India to rethink the treaty. For many years, there was no development on that front, but all that changed in April 2025. The terrorist attack on civilians in India’s Jammu and Kashmir region was not only cowardly but also the final nail in the coffin.
This aggression by Pakistan led to the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. However, the Pakistani government dubbed it a ‘hostile move’. Claiming that India does not have the authority to suspend the treaty.
These actions had immediate geopolitical implications for Pakistan, a country whose agrarian economy relies heavily on these rivers. They did all they could in international forums like the UN. However, India reiterated that Indus and all its tributaries are an integral part of India, and it can do whatever it deems necessary to secure its interests. This is a prime example of how, even in the absence of scarcity, water can be turned into a weapon.
From Data to Strategic Imperatives
Water is nowhere near a conventional weapon, but its scarcity is reshaping geopolitical risk in measurable ways. In the Sahel, millions lose water access, livelihoods, and economic stability, creating fertile ground for recruitment into armed groups. In South Asia, the suspension and strategic use of treaties governing water flows between rivals threaten not only agricultural output but also diplomatic stability between nuclear powers. Global data on water insecurity further shows that these are not isolated cases but part of a widening pattern linking water scarcity to security risk.
