India-US Trade Pact, Russian Oil and Kremlin Reaction

India’s recently announced trade agreement with the United States has sparked international attention, particularly around its implications for India’s Russian oil imports and broader geopolitical ties. U.S. President Donald Trump said the pact would cut U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and include conditions under which India would halve or sharply reduce purchases of Russian crude oil, which could significantly dent Russian oil revenue. Russia has historically relied on India as one of its top importers of seaborne crude, and losing a major customer could force Moscow to lower prices and find alternative markets. 

Analysts noted that Russia’s oil export revenues could shrink if India stops buying its crude, compounding pressure from Western sanctions imposed over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Indian refineries have already reduced Russian oil imports in recent months, with data showing continued declines, though there has been no official government directive to cease purchases immediately. 

However, India’s official position underscores energy security and market realities, with New Delhi emphasising that it remains free to source crude oil from any supplier. The Kremlin responded to Trump’s claims, stating that India’s strategy to diversify its energy imports is not new and that Moscow has not received any formal communication regarding a halt to Russian oil purchases. Russia also stressed that its long-standing energy ties with India remain robust, dismissing the suggestion of a sudden shift. 

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Trade experts and officials say that completely replacing Russian oil will be challenging because of differences in crude quality and the scale of the volumes involved. India’s large refinery plan aims to balance imports from multiple sources, including the Middle East and the U.S., to ensure energy supply stability during any transition. The evolving situation continues to attract global attention as markets adjust to the twin pressures of geopolitical strategy and trade policy. Both the United States and India have stressed the importance of broadening economic cooperation, even as clarifications continue around energy sourcing commitments.